A low-pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) any time soon and intensify further. This will be the maiden system of pre-monsoon season. The weather system will have the potential to intensify further, as it shifts over deep waters of BoB. Timing and location favour the possibility of cyclogenesis. A large stretch of coastline, along the box-like structure of BoB, becomes vulnerable for rough weather condition.
Presently, a broad east-west cyclonic circulation is marked off the Tamil Nadu coast, extending from farther parts of Southwest BoB to South-Central parts of Bay. The system is getting organized and likely to become compact, in the next 24-36 hours. Subsequently, a low-pressure area is likely to form over Southwest BoB, supported by cyclonic circulation up to mid-tropospheric levels. Environmental conditions being favourable, the chances of having a strong system remain alive.
There is no consensus at this moment about the prospects of this weather system. Rather, there is a large diversity in its positioning, track and intensity, as well. Clarity is likely, once the system gets consolidated with sharp outlines. Yes, the timings, positioning, sea potential and the environment seem to be aligned to support the formation of tropical disturbance.
During the consolidation phase, the low pressure will intensify and move northeastward. It means, that the system will shift farther from the coast and keep a safe distance from becoming a depression or deep depression. The dichotomy begins from thereon, about its likely course and timelines. At this juncture, there is large diversification and precision forecast is difficult. It may or may not become a cyclonic storm and could navigate as depression or deep depression. However, the chance can not be ruled out and, in that case, the entire coastline from Myanmar-Bangladesh- West Bengal to Odisha becomes vulnerable. The weather system needs to be kept under scrutiny for the next 36 hours, for any commitment on its likely track and intensity.
