A north-south trough is marked over the sea, off Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh. A cyclonic circulation is likely to come up over the northwest Bay of Bengal in the next 24 hours. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is expected to form over the same region, in the subsequent 24 hours. Unlike the previous system, this low pressure will remain over the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal and organize further for 2-3 days. It is also expected to shift northward incrementally, between 06th and 08th Sep and reach Head Bay by 08th/ 09th September.
Preliminary results support the movement of this system, initially over South Bangladesh and Gangetic West Bengal. Later, it is likely to move over to Bihar and Gangetic West Bengal on 11th/12th September. Since the model results are least reliable after about 4-5 days, this system needs to be kept under close watch. An update on likely conditions and the authentic forecast will take another 72 hours. The track of monsoon systems in September undergoes large variations, as compared to the core monsoon months of July and August.
Notwithstanding, the variability of track and timelines of this low-pressure area, weather conditions along the coastal region and some interior parts will start getting influenced from today onwards. The weather activity will commence over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining parts of Telangana, today itself. Tomorrow, the spread of activity will cover parts of Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Bihar. As the low pressure drifts over North Bay, the weather belt will shift along and off the coastline of Odisha and West Best Bengal. Precise forecasts on the intensity and spread of weather activity will need an observation period of about 72 hours.
Image Courtesy: India Today
