A cyclonic circulation is marked over the Southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region extending up to mid-tropospheric levels. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region in the next 24 hours. The low-pressure will move northwest and shift over the Central Arabian Sea, a little further away from the coast. Also, it is likely to consolidate and strengthen into a depression in the subsequent 48 hours.
After the commencement of the withdrawal of southwest monsoon, this will be the first post-monsoon weather system to set the pace for the upcoming season. The environmental conditions over the Arabian Sea seem to be favourable for the sustenance of the system but it may not intensify rapidly to a storm during that period. The system will remain at a safe distance from the coastline for any hazardous weather conditions. At the same time, there will be an uptick in the weather activity along the West Coast, between the 09th and 12th of October.
There are signs of another cyclonic circulation, right now at a preliminary stage, likely to come up over the extreme Southwest Bay of Bengal, off Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coastline. The trough line joining the above two systems will trigger the rainfall activity over Kerala and Tamil Nadu, more intensely on 12th October and later, possibly a spell of about three days.
Fairly widespread rain and thundershowers are expected over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Goa, today. The activity may remain weak for the Konkan region, including Mumbai. Intensity and spread will increase between 10th and 11th October, all along the West Coast, south of Gujarat. With the approach of another system from Southwest Bay, weather activity will be augmented between the 12th and 14th Oct. Severe weather is likely over Tamil Nadu and Kerala during this period. This trailing system will also enter the Arabian Sea and as it usually happens, may strengthen further. As the model accuracy drops after a lead time of about 4-5 days, the further forecast will need a comprehensive review.
Image Courtesy: Canva
