A cyclonic circulation has come up over Southeast Arabian Sea and neighbouring Lakshadweep region. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region in the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen further in the subsequent 48 hours with very little shift of its core area. This may also trigger the monsoon current over mainland, to start with Lakshadweep and Kerala.
Numerical models are marred with ambiguous results on further developments of the monsoon vortex. The weather system need to be under observation for next 48 hours. Little more clarity will emerge once the system becomes low pressure/ well marked low pressure.
Environmental conditions are quite favorable over this part of Arabian Sea for intensification of such systems to become tropical storm over a period of 4-5 days. However, it is rather premature to comment authentically about potential consequences of such oceanic disturbances. Starting days of June remain notorious for hosting freaky storms.
Arabian Sea weather systems generally do not augur well for the commencement of monsoon stream over Peninsular India. Some of these systems move parallel to the West Coast, keeping a safe distance from the landmass. In such a scenario, rainfall gets confined to merely along state of Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan region.
Interior parts of Peninsula, covering Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana observe least weather activity. In case of these systems drifting over open waters, far from the coastline, the situation worsens further. The rainfall occurs only over Kerala and Lakshadweep and rest of West Coast witness isolated weather activity.
Such systems have the potential to become tropical storms. If so, few of them do have a history of impacting Konkan and Gujarat region. Majority of these storms track over open waters and head towards Pakistan, Yemen and Oman. Northern and Northeastern parts of the Arabian Sea are relatively cooler and therefore, these weather systems have tendency to weaken before the landfall.
Monsoon rains over Peninsular India reduce substantially. Progress becomes slow and sluggish. Meteorological developments need to be tracked very closely for the next 2 days for reliable forecast.