A cyclonic circulation is marked over the Southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region, extending up to mid-tropospheric levels. There is another support circulation over the Southwest Bay of Bengal, off Sri Lanka and South Tamil Nadu coast in the lower levels. A trough is joining these two features, running across South Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Under the combined influence of these factors, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the Southeast Arabian Sea, off the Kerala-Karnataka coast, in the next 24-36 hours.
The low-pressure area and its circulation are likely to meander over the same region, with minor shifts, for the subsequent 2-3 days. The weather system in the Southwest Bay of Bengal is likely to move westward and augment the system over the Arabian Sea. There is a bit of uncertainty, as of now, about the grade of the intensity of the weather system of the Arabian Sea. The circulation moving across Sri Lanka and South Tamil Nadu is likely to get subsumed by the main system over Arabian Sea. The complete process will take about 3-4 days, to ascertain the track, timelines and strength of the system.
After the withdrawal of monsoon, the Arabian Sea becomes a favourite for hosting post-monsoon disturbances. These systems do stand a chance to convert into depressions and storms during the month of October. Most of these systems find favourable conditions for the intensification of significant cyclones. Few of these do have a history of threatening the Konkan and Gujarat Coast. It will be too early to preempt the scale and strength of this system. However, the presence of cyclonic circulation itself, off the coast, will trigger weather activity along the Western Ghats.
There is an uptick in the weather activity likely over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Konkan & Goa, starting today and carrying on till the weekend. The intensity and spread will vary over these parts. Heavy spells are likely, embedded with very heavy and short-duration fiery rains, more so, for Kerala. As the weather system consolidates and strengthens, sharp and intense showers will lash Coastal Karnataka, South interior Karnataka, Goa and Southern parts of the Konkan region.
Image Courtesy: Ecowatch