A fresh low pressure area is likely to form over South Andaman Sea around 28thNovember 2021. This is expected to become more marked in the subsequent 48hr. Further, it is likely to move west-northwestward and possibly move over South Central Bay of Bengal as a depression on 30thNov.
Remnant of a weather system is expected to move as cyclonic circulation over Gulf of Thailand on 27thNov. This feature will track westward and emerge as low pressure area over South Andaman Sea on 28thNov. Environmental conditions will be supportive for further intensification. Sea Surface Temperature(SST) and wind shear, the two decisive factors, will favor its growth and sustenance for the next few days. Going by the track record, such perturbation over the oceanic surface has the potential to become tropical storm. Climatology and the seasonal aspects also favor formation of storm around this time of the year.
Northeast Monsoon season 2021 has not witnessed any storm so far. Invariably, the season observes one or two storm, originating over Andaman Sea or an offshoot of remnant system from Gulf of Thailand. Therefore, probability of formation of maiden cyclone of this season is fairly high. These storms move northwestward to head for Andhra Pradesh and Odisha at this time of the year. Some of them do reach close to the coast and start recurving, grazing the coastline.
Andaman Sea will be under close watch for development of any such system. Sufficient notice will be extended to prepare for the challenge and inclement weather, if any. In case of cyclone, it will be named ‘Jawad’ as proposed by Saudi Arabia.
