A cyclonic circulation has been persisting over West-Central and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) for the last 2 days. This circulation has been shifting from south to north off the coast, from Tamil Nadu to Andhra Pradesh. It is likely to move further and get organized over Northwest BoB, off the Odisha coast in the next 48hr. Under the influence of this circulation, a low-pressure area is expected to form, tentatively on 25th June over the same region. This system is likely to move inland and travel across the central parts. Monsoon, which is lying dormant over these parts so far is likely to get revived.
Currently, a low-pressure area (remnant of cyclone Biparjoy) is marked over central parts of Uttar Pradesh and the neighbouring region of Madhya Pradesh. This low pressure will be weakening further and moving eastward over East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh over the next 2 days. In the meantime, a fresh low pressure is likely to form over BoB on 25th June. The low pressure will move inland on 26th June and track across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The remnant low pressure, as a weakened cyclonic circulation, is likely to get merged with it. The combined influence of this will lead to the revival of monsoon over the agri heartland, particularly the one which is reeling under parched conditions.
Cyclone Biparjoy resulted in untimely heavy rains over Gujarat and Rajasthan. These rains have done more damage than any benefit over the semi-desert region of Kutch and West Rajasthan. Remnant of this cyclone has lashed parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh also with deluge in pockets. This has resulted in a skewed rainfall distribution during the onset month of June. Rains are supposed to drench Peninsular India around this time. However, except Tamil Nadu, all other sub–divisions of South India are reeling with large deficit of 60% to 80%. Even the central and eastern parts covering Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal are literally parched with rain deficit rising to 80%-90%.
Monsoon revival is expected and decent monsoon rains are likely over those areas which need them most. These rains will travel from east to west, across central parts and reach Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan. Rainfall over Maharashtra may still remain inadequate. Vidarbha is likely to have reasonable showers covering Yeotmal, Wardha, Washim, Bramhapuri, Gondia, Chandrapur, Nagpur and Amravati. Rains are expected to remain scanty over Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra and only a few places are likely to have moderate showers. Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu will be left mostly dry during this revival phase of monsoon.