Under the influence of persisting cyclonic circulation, a low-pressure area formed yesterday, over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Jharkhand. The system is supported by cyclonic circulation up to the middle levels of the atmosphere. It is likely to move westward across Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, North Madhya Maharashtra and Rajasthan. The rainfall belt will shift along with the system from east to west, keeping the monsoon in a vigorous state over different parts for the next four days or so.
By tomorrow, the weather system will move to East & Central Madhya Pradesh. Moving further, on 04th Aug, the system will reach the meeting point of four regions, namely Southwest Madhya Pradesh, Southeast Rajasthan, North Madhya Maharashtra and North Gujarat. This is where it will receive a lot of moisture from the Arabian Sea.
The peak intensity of the system is likely to last for two days. On 03rdAug, central and eastern parts of Madhya Pradesh covering Jabalpur, Umaria, Narsinghpur, Damoh, Singrauli, Katni, Mandla, Dindori, Hoshangabad, Sagar and Panna will have the risk of heavy to very heavy rains. On 04thAug, places at risk will include Guna, Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Khargone, Ratlam, Udaipur, Bundi, Kota, Sikar, Jalgaon, Nundarbar, Ahmadnagar, Dhuley, Godhra, Dahod, Panchmahal, Mahisagar, Aravali, Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad.
The weather system will weaken and move over West Rajasthan, the next day. Moderate to heavy showers will continue over those parts, albeit with less intensity. Ultimately, the system will merge with the seasonal monsoon trough. Another round of intense rains will follow the same track with a short breather in between on 06th August 2024.