Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over tri-junction of West Madhya Pradesh, Southeast Rajasthan and North Gujarat, a low pressure area has formed over South Rajasthan and neighborhood. Associated cyclonic circulation is extending up to mid tropospheric levels, tilting southward with height.
This feature is also complemented by another cyclonic circulation marked over Southeast Madhya Pradesh and adjoining region. The trough line joining the two circulations, is running across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and further over Bay of Bengal. This is the Monsoon trough, as of now running south of its normal position, passing through Jaisalmer, Kota, Guna, Damoh, Bilaspur, Bhubaneshwar and Bay of Bengal.
Low pressure area will move westward over parts of Pakistan and Northeast Arabian Sea. However, the monsoon trough will continue to stretch across Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh with an embedded cyclonic circulation in between. As the low pressure drifts away from Indian region, the monsoon trough will have tendency to shift northward across central Rajasthan and Central parts of West Madhya Pradesh over the next 48hr. The trough will move further northward, possibly to north of its normal position over North Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi region over the subsequent 72hr. This will amount to change in the rainfall belt during that period.
Under the influence of low pressure and the oscillation of monsoon trough, fairly widespread rain and thundershowers are likely over Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, over the next 2 days. The stormy weather conditions will be accompanied with lightning strikes and gusty winds. The districts of Rajasthan at risk of getting deluged during this period are : Dungarpur, Banswara, Pratapgarh, Chittorgarh, Baran, Jhalawar, Bhilwara, Bundi, Kota, Pali, Sawai Madhopur, Barmer, Jaisalmer, Phalodi and Jodhpur. The contiguous parts of Madhya Pradesh will also have fair chance of getting downpour at many places. The districts to be watched out are : Dhar, Indore, Shajapur, Ujjain, Ratlam, Neemuch, Bhopal, Vidisha, Rajgarh, Hoshangabad, Chhindwara, Dewas, Sehore and Raisen.
As the low pressure moves away and the trough line shifts north, weather conditions will improve from 27th July onward. Substantial improvement will be witnessed anytime after 28thJuly and hold thereafter, at least for the next 4-5days.