The low pressure area formed earlier over Jharkhand and West Bengal had intensified into a depression first and deep depression later over parts of Madhya Pradesh. The weather system has since weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area and is lying over the tri-junction of North West Madhya Pradesh, Northeast Rajasthan, and Southwest Haryana. Well-marked circulation of the system is extending up to medium levels. The monsoon trough is also passing through and through the centre of the low-pressure area.
The weather system will weaken further to a low-pressure area soon and get submerged in the seasonal monsoon trough in the next about 36 hours. Still, the remnant of the system, along with the east-west-oriented elongated trough, will keep the monsoon active to vigorous over Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The monsoon activity will stretch along the Indo-Gangetic plains and cover the states of Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, and West Bengal.
Fairly widespread rain and thundershowers are likely over East Rajasthan, West & North Madhya Pradesh, Parts of Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh between 05th and 08th August 2024. Some parts of Bihar, North Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand will also have rain and thundershowers during this period. The eastern states will have simultaneous weather activity on an extended note between 10th and 14th August also. On the western end of the monsoon trough, the extent will shrink and confine to parts of East Rajasthan, Southwest Madhya Pradesh, and North Gujarat between 09th and 11th August.
Following this spell of active monsoon conditions over the northern, central, and eastern parts of the country, the monsoon trough is expected to shift north of its normal position. Rainfall belt during such a phase shift along the foothills and reduces significantly elsewhere. Since the model accuracy goes low after about 4-5 days, the meteorological developments need to be kept under observation. An update around the mid-week will be more accurate and reliable.
Image Credit: The Independent