Monsoon trough is running close to the foothills all along with feeble cyclonic circulations embedded over Uttrakhand, Bihar and Assam. Break monsoon conditions are prevailing resulting poor rainfall over most parts of central, western and north India.
Heavy rainfall was confined to some parts of East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh. Isolated locations in Tamil Nadu also experienced moderate to heavy showers. This rainfall pattern is synonymous with the break monsoon conditions. Such conditions are vacated with the formation of low pressure area or cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal(BoB).
Month of August has seen long ‘break’ in the 1st fortnight, depriving rainfall over the core monsoon area mostly covering central parts of the country. Pan India rainfall deficiency was on the rise throughout and has reached an alarming figure of 10%.
The current spell of break condition will be short lived and is going to be over soon. Monsoon activity will revive shortly with a decent spread of rain over the eastern, central and northern parts of the country.
A fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to come up over northwest BoB on 27thAugust. This feature will appear in the medium levels of the atmosphere and percolate to the surface in the subsequent 24hr. This may turn in to a low pressure area over west central and adjoining northwest BoB on 29thAug. Monsoon trough is expected to drop southward leading to cessation of intense weather activity over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.
Rainfall will increase over West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar and Jharkhand between 26th and 28thAugust. Rainfall belt will extend further to states of Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh on 28th and 29th Aug. Later, active monsoon conditions are likely over Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana and Uttarakhand.
Over south peninsula, the rainfall activity will be intense over Kerala between 27th and 30thAug. Parched state of Gujarat is likely to receive few heavy showers during opening days of September. Few pockets of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu are likely to have moderate rain and thundershowers during this period.
