A fresh low-pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal, very soon. The first of its kind in this month, conditions look favourable for the monsoon system in the next about 48 hours or so. November, otherwise is the peak period for cyclonic activity in the Indian Seas, but remained just blank, so far. The likely system may also be an outlier in terms of its location and further progress.
Cyclonic storms over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the month of November usually originate between 8°N and 13°N and 90°E and 95°E. These systems normally move west-northwest and head for North Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The weather systems forming over the northern latitudes, beyond 10°N, invariably recurve to strike Bangladesh.
The upcoming weather system is likely to originate over the equatorial region near the southernmost parts of the Andaman Sea, next to Malacca Strait. Being very low in latitudes, the disturbance has a tendency to dissipate, without much sea travel, due to lack of Coriolis Force. But, exceptions are always there and the upcoming system seems to be one of those rare ones. The wind pattern over that region is suggestive of some perturbation likely, within the next 24 hours or so.
The Cyclonic Circulation will form over the South Andaman Sea and consolidate further in the subsequent 24 hours. More than a fair chance that a low-pressure area is likely to form, late on 22nd Nov or early 23rd Nov. Currently, the change in the wind pattern is getting manifested as cloud clusters over that area. The upcoming low-pressure area has better chances to intensify, further into depression/deep depression around this weekend. Subject to the weather system gaining sufficient latitude, sea conditions will be favourable for triggering a tropical storm, the first one for this month, over the southwestern parts of the Bay of Bengal.
It will not be prudent to prognosticate further on this weather system at this stage. Let the disturbance emerge as a well-marked low pressure. From that stage onward, the systems leave adequate signatures and guidance for its further track, intensity and timelines. Suffice to say, that the southern states of India need to prepare for any eventuality and tackle the exigencies, if any.