A low-pressure area is likely to form over the Southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region, shortly. It may quickly become more marked over the same region. The monsoon system will keep close proximity to Kerala and Coastal Karnataka. Fairly widespread moderate rains at many places and isolated heavy rainfall are quite likely, early next week.
The Arabian Sea has mostly remained silent this season and no significant monsoon system has developed over the region. Breaking the jinx, a low-pressure area is expected to form, most likely on Sunday, the 18th of August. A cyclonic circulation is marked over the extreme Southeast Arabian Sea, off the Kerala coast, in the lower levels of the atmosphere. It is likely to extend to mid-levels, very soon. Under its influence, a low-pressure area will form over the Southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region on 18 August 2024. In the due course of time, the system will move northward and may intensify further. To start with, it is expected to remain over the sea and reach west abeam Coastal Karnataka on 19th Aug.
By virtue of its close proximity to the coast, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka will have moderate showers at many places and heavy downpours at isolated ones, on the 18th and 19th Aug. The sea conditions will become rough for any commercial and adventure activities. The system will move a little away from the coast and come abeam Goa, the next day on 20th Aug. The sea conditions are not favouring the sustenance of the system further. It may weaken and drift towards the Konkan coast.
Model accuracy remains low and the forecast beyond 4 days may not be reliable. It will be prudent to wait till the inception of the system in a low-pressure area. The region will be kept under observation for any further developments. However, the chances remain for Mumbai to have a hiatus, in the prolonged lean monsoon activity going on for more than 10 days now.
Image Courtesy: East Coast Daily