Bay of Bengal has been an active basin this season since the commencement of pre monsoon. Bay of Bengal has been scoring over Arabian Sea and churning more number of disturbances in quick succession.
Month of March witnessed the tropical cyclone 01B in the 1st week and followed by Deep Depression during the 3rd week. As on expected lines, both the systems spared the Indian coastline. Rising heat potential has turned this basin in to a hot spot for cyclones for the upcoming months of April and May.
A cyclonic circulation is likely to move in from Gulf of Thailand and Myanmar coast over the South Andaman Sea. This feature will gain strength and well knit closed area of circulation is expected to form over that region between 05th and 06thApril. Favourable environmental conditions will boost it further to a well marked low pressure area with 2 closed isobars in the subsequent 24hr.
Further development of this system will be under scanner as the situation is dichotomous for the time being. Such disturbance have the potential to strengthen further while over open seas. Even if the disturbance intensifies further, it is marred with uncertainty about its grade, track and timelines. Mandatorily, the area is to kept under observation for 48hr, between 06th and 08th April.
It is rather early for the storms to develop over Andaman Sea but the trendsetter conditions have already been witnessed as an outlier for the region. As a precursor, Bay of Bengal has taken the lead to churn 2 significant weather systems, rather earlier than expected. Fingers crossed to observe yet another possible storm by the weekend.
