Updated on July 29, 2015 at 12:00 PM (IST): The system over Southwest Rajasthan and adjoining areas is weakening rapidly. At present, it lies over Southwest Rajasthan and adjoining areas as a depression. It is likely to weaken into a low pressure area, within next 12 hours. Rainfall activity will now reduce over Gujarat.
The system will eventually merge with the Monsoon trough and bring light to moderate rainfall over the plains of North India.
Updated on July 28, 2015 at 3:35 PM (IST): The depression over Rajasthan has now intensified into a deep depression and is centered at 24.8°N and 71.8°E, about 110 km southeast of Barmer. The system is likely to remain stationary for next 48 hours and will then start moving northeastwards gradually. It will continue to give heavy rainfall over the region and is expected to weaken after 48 hours.
Updated on July 28, 2015: The depression over Rajasthan remains stationary and is currently marked southeast of Jaisalmer. The system is centered at 26.2°N and 71.8°E. The system is expected to stay here as very little movement is likely.
The system came up last weekend and has a fairly long life. The last system which emerged in the region crossed quickly, in about 24 hours, after giving heavy rainfall at several places. But the current system has remained positioned in the region for long and has been giving heavy rainfall in parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat.
The Western Disturbance over Pakistan and adjoining areas of Jammu and Kashmir and the system over Rajasthan are both aligned along the same longitude. This has restricted the movement of the system over Rajasthan and has also helped it sustain itself. In another 48 hours, the system is likely to shift deeper into Rajasthan.
The weather system has given heavy rainfall over Gujarat, especially in the Kutch region. The Kutch terrain cannot absorb too much water and hence a prolonged spell of heavy rain is likely to translate into flood like conditions in the region. Thus locals are advised to exercise care and caution as more rain is expected in the region in next 48 hours.
Updated on July 27, 2015: Initially a cyclonic circulation developed over North Madhya Pradesh and gradually moved in the westward direction. It intensified into a low pressure area, stationed over Southwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan, on July 24. Till then West Madhya Pradesh had received surplus rainfall of 29%, but East Madhya Pradesh was deficient by 7%.
By July 26, the weather system further intensified into a well-marked low pressure area, lying over West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan. Right from its inception, the weather system has been giving moderate to heavy showers in West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan. The rain belt has also covered Gujarat, mainly Kutch.
Weather forecast for Gujarat and Rajasthan
The weather system will continue to give heavy rainfall over many districts of West Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan and Kutch during next 24 hours. The system is likely to gain more strength and could also turn into a depression in next 24 hours. We can expect heavy to very heavy rainfall in West Rajasthan and Saurashtra & Kutch during next 48 hours.
Rajasthan is a huge state in terms of area. Thus, variability of Monsoon rain is very high in East and West Rajasthan. So much so that, East Rajasthan receives almost double the rainfall received by West Rajasthan. Even from this system, East and South Rajasthan will receive more rainfall than the western parts of the state.
As of now, the cumulative rainfall figure in East Rajasthan is surplus by 20%. Since the normal average in West Rajasthan is quite low, this part of the state has recorded 44% excess rainfall.
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Also read, Monsoon system in Bay of Bengal
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