The low pressure area in eastcentral Bay of Bengal has developed into a depression and weather conditions are conducive for its further intensification into a deep depression during the next 24 hours. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the weather system will move initially northwards for sometime and then north-northeastwards, towards Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coast in the next two days.
Weather models and climatology suggest that the weather system is following its usual path and its chances of heading towards Indian coast is 20 per cent. There are 50 per cent chances of the system going towards Myanmar, while 30 per cent chances of it moving towards Bangladesh.
The depression currently lies some 500 km north-northwest of Port Blair, 600 km west-southwest of Yangon in Myanmar and 640 km south-southwest of Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh. After emerging as a cyclonic circulation over north Andaman Sea, the weather system has been languishing in north Andaman Sea and then in Eastcentral Bay of Bengal for the last one week or so.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the weather system will help the progress of Southwest Monsoon. The southwesterly winds could reach up to some more parts of eastcentral and northeast Bay of Bengal during the next two days. The western arm of the Monsoon line that lies in southeast Bay of Bengal could also make some progress under the aegis of the evolving weather system.
