The well-marked low-pressure area over south-west Bay of Bengal has become a depression and is expected to further intensify into a deep depression.
Thereafter, it may intensify into a cyclonic storm 'Roanu' by tomorrow. However, the system isn't expected to intensify further due to lack of time as sea travel will be limited. Had the system lingered in the sea for another 2 to 3 days, further intensification into a severe cyclonic storm could have been a possibility.
Presently, conditions are favourable for the formation of a cyclonic storm as the sea surface temperature is above 28°C and low level wind sheer is between 10 to 15 knots.
It is likely to make landfall as a cyclone between Karaikal and Chennai near Puducherry. Heavy to very heavy rain is likely over Chennai and adjoining areas. Fishermen are advised not to venture in the sea for another 2 to 3 days.
Updated on November 8, 2015 11:20 AM (IST): Well marked low likely to intensify into a depression
The well-marked low-pressure area over south-west Bay of Bengal and adjoining area persists.
An associated cyclonic circulation is extending by 4 to 5 km above the main sea level.
As per Skymet Meteorology Division in India, this well-marked low is expected to intensify into a depression and will move in a north-westerly direction towards the Tamil Nadu coast.
The system will result in heavy to extremely heavy rain in the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu. Also, heavy rainfall is likely to occur over Sri Lanka.
Updated on November 07, 2015 02:15 PM (IST): Cyclonic circulation in Bay of Bengal intensifies into low pressure area
The cyclonic circulation in Southwest Bay of Bengal has further intensified into low pressure area and is likely to become more marked during next 24 hours.
The system that will be moving in west-northwest direction is presently located off the northeast Sri Lanka coast.
During last 24 hours, it has given fairly widespread moderate to heavy rain and thundershowers over coastal Tamil Nadu. Few places have also recorded heavy to extremely heavy showers.
As per Skymet, the system will continue giving moderate to heavy rain over the entire state for next 48 hours as well.
Updated on November 04, 2015 13:45 PM (IST): Fresh weather system brewing in Bay of Bengal
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, a fresh weather system is brewing in Southeast Bay of Bengal. The system, initially seen as cyclonic circulation, will be developing around November 07 or 08.
Thereafter, system is expected to get more marked and intensify into a low pressure area. It will further strengthen into depression as it will have enough sea travel.
However, models indicate that it may not develop into a very strong weather system and would be restricted to depression only.
The system will be moving in west-northwest direction towards South Andhra Pradesh coast but the process will take at least three to four day. As per Skymet, initially coastal parts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu will receive good showers in wake of the system. Subsequently as the system moves closer to the coast, interior parts of both the states will also starting receiving rain.
Updated on October 31, 2015 13:00 PM (IST): Low pressure area weakens into cyclonic circulation, moves in Arabian Sea
The low pressure area, which had been prevailing in Southwest Bay of Bengal for last few days, has become less marked and moved southwestwards in Arabian Sea.
The system is presently lying as cyclonic circulation over Kerala Coast. It is expected to prevail for another 24 hours over the region.
Under its influence, moderate to heavy rains and thunder showers have been recorded over Kerala and Tamil Nadu during last 24 hours.
Updated on October 30, 2015 12:00 PM (IST): Low pressure area in Bay of Bengal to give rain over Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh
A low-pressure area persists over Sri Lankan coast since last 3-4 days. A trough extending from this system is running along the East Coast upto a cyclonic circulation over North Bay of Bengal. This trough is responsible for good rain along the East Coast.
Now models suggest low pressure area of Sri Lanka coast will gradually move in a westerly direction and will merge into the Arabian Sea during next 24-48 hours. It is expected to intensify into well-marked low pressure area and then turn into a depression by November 2.
However, West coast of India will not be affected by this system. Kerala nad Karnataka coast will be spared too. The weather system will follow the similar path as the cyclone Chapala has followed. It is also unlikely to intensify into a cyclone.
Updated on October 29, 2015 12:00 PM (IST): Low pressure area in Bay of Bengal to intensify rain over Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh
The low pressure area in Southwest Bay of Bengal off the Sri Lanka coast continues to sustain its strength. Weather conditions indicate that it may intensify further during next 48 hours.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the system will now gradually start moving northwards along the Tamil Nadu coast. With this, intensity of rain will increase over coastal Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh.
By October 31, rain belt will shift with the system and cover more parts of Andhra Pardesh and South Odisha. However, scattered light rain will continue over Tamil Nadu.
As the system continue to travel along the East coast, we can expect rain over north-coastal Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal. Thereafter system is likely to re-curve in northeast direction and start affecting Bangladesh and Mayanmar region. Meanwhile, intensity of rain over Coastal Andhra Pradesh will reduce significantly.
Updated on October 28, 2015 11:15 AM (IST): Low pressure area in Bay of Bengal to intensify in next 48 hours
The low pressure area in Southwest Bay Of Bengal, off the Sri Lanka coast is likely to gain strength and intensify into a well-marked low pressure area during next 48 hours.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the system has been sustaining its strength for quite some time now, but its proximity to land mass is stopping it from becoming more marked.
Moreover, presence of another system in the Arabian Sea is not letting it intensify further as it takes away the moisture. With this system moving away from the Indian coast, the low-pressure area is likely to gather strength and move northwards along the Tamil Nadu coast. The system is not likely to travel inland.
During next 24 hours, rainfall activity will be light and confined to coastal areas of Tamil Nadu only. Thereafter, the intensity of rain will increase significantly and will also mark the onset of the much-awaited Northeast Monsoon over the region.
The rain belt will also cover more places as the system travels along the coast. It will initially cover Andhra Pradesh, thereafter Odisha and then West Bengal.
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