As anticipated, a low pressure area has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining coastal parts of north Odisha and southern parts of Gangetic West Bengal. Weather system is supported by cyclonic circulation up to higher levels in the atmosphere and tilting southwestward with height, a regular feature for monsoon low. The low pressure will move west-northwest across north Odisha and north Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand region. The weakened low pressure will further reach up to central Madhya Pradesh. Good monsoon showers are likely over Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh in the next 4-5 days. The peripherals of weather band may also reach Vidarbha, Marathwada , North Telangana and East Rajasthan for couple of days.
Weak monsoon conditions, akin to ‘break monsoon’ prevailed for fairly long during first fortnight of August. Having break monsoon for about a week is very common during August. As such, month of August is most favoured for ‘break-in-monsoon’. Intra seasonal variability remains an inbuilt characteristic of southwest monsoon. Having a ‘break’ in August after experiencing active phase during July is very common. However, monsoon literally going off track is attributable to the development of strong El Nino developing in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is known for derailing the monsoon process and corrupting the seasonal rainfall.
Low pressure area forming after the ‘break’ invariably bring the monsoon on track. It restores the monsoon trough to its normal position, which during break is placed along the foothills of Himalayas. Also, the monsoon low move along this trough to reach deep in to the western parts in the proximity of Rajasthan, North Madhya Pradesh and Haryana & Punjab region. The monsoon low following the break literally revives the monsoon for most parts of the country.
The current low pressure area is becoming an ‘outlier’ in defying these norms. Keeping in mind the likely track of low pressure and scale of volatility of meteorological feature associated with it, a perfect revival of monsoon is unlikely. Only, the eastern end of the monsoon trough has shifted southward so far. The western end may not change sufficiently its position. The low pressure will give heavy rainfall over eastern and central parts of the country, in a staggered manner. Even, parts of East Rajasthan and dwindling pockets like Vidarbha and Marathwada may get decent showers for a day or two. But typical revival does not seem to be on cards.
The cyclonic circulation of the monsoon low is likely to meander over parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand. This broad feature will keep the monsoon active in few select pockets over the next 4-5 days. However, the monsoon trough once again is likely to shift north of its normal position after 24-25 August. Intense weather activity may again get triggered for the mountain states of North India and more so for Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand. Entire South Peninsula, large parts of Maharashtra, interiors of Punjab & Haryana, southern half of Madhya Pradesh and most parts of Rajasthan will witness lean weather activity, increasing the rainfall deficit margin.