A cyclonic circulation was persisting over North Andaman Sea and adjoining Northeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) for the last 48hr. Under its influence, a low pressure area formed over the same region. It rapidly strengthened further to a well marked low pressure area. Broad scale cyclonic circulation is marked centered around 16°N and 96.6°E. Area of convection is located around 110km south-southeast of Yangon, Myanmar. Weather system has remained quasi stationery over the past 24hr.
Well Marked Low is placed in favorable environmental conditions. Sea surface temperature is rather warm at 31°C and low vertical wind shear of 5-10 Knots. Steered by monsoon southwesterly winds, it is likely to move northeastward over Gulf of Martaban and neighboring coastal parts of Myanmar. The system is expected to consolidate further and become depression shortly. Also, it has the potential of intensifying further to a deep depression. Even, chances of further development to a weak tropical storm can not be ruled out. Proximity of Arakan coast and the landmass beyond, is a spoiler for its intensification. However, there is a significant chance for this weather system to become cyclone in the next 24hr.
Irrespective of strength and grade of this system, it will move away from the North Andaman Sea towards Gulf of Martaban first and later over Shan Plateau (Myanmar) and Thailand. However, heavy rainfall is likely over Bay Islands in the next 24hr. Maya Bandar and Long Island received 102mm and 105mm rainfall in the past 24hr. Very heavy rainfall is expected over Hut Bay, Maya Bandar, Long Islands, Port Blair and moderate to heavy spells are likely over Car Nicobar and Nancowry. Extremely heavy rains accompanied with gale speed winds will ravage the Arakan Coast in the proximity of Gulf of Martaban and also the interiors of Thailand , bordering Myanmar.
