On the expected lines, a low-pressure area has formed over Southwest Bay of Bengal (BoB). Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over that region, the first pre-monsoon system of this season has come up. This low-pressure area is likely to move northeast and get more organized and intensify into a depression over the next 36-48 hours.
The position of this system over BoB is very unusual, at this time of the year. Normally, the pre-monsoon systems in the month of May originate over the South Andaman Sea and Southeast BoB. However, the environmental conditions are favourable for the intensification of low-pressure areas. It is likely to become depression/ deep depression on 24th May, over the open stretch of central BoB. The season and the climatology support its further intensification, to become a possible cyclone on 25th May or so.
The system is likely to drift away from the Indian coastline for the next 48 hours. As a storm, it will be near to the landmass and therefore, may not have chance to pick up severity. But, even a mild storm is packed with strong winds of the order of 60 to 90 kmh. Together with heavy rains, damaging potential become dangerous. The storm in all probabilities will be heading for Myanmar-Bangladesh border ( south of Cox’s Bazar). The cyclone, if forms, will be named ‘REMAL’ as suggested by Oman.
It is too early to comment on its impact on the Indian region the system needs to be kept under close scrutiny for the next 24 hours. At this stage, no adverse impact is envisaged for the coastline of Odisha. However, the coastline of Gangetic West Bengal and the Sunderban area share close proximity to the Bangladesh border. The precision forecast for that area will be more authentic after 24 hours. Keeping in view the truant record of storms in terms of timelines and track, it is always advisable to prepare for any eventuality and act on short notice.
