Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal(BoB) and adjoining coastal region, a low pressure area has formed over northwest BoB, off Odisha coast. Associated cyclonic circulation is extending up to middle levels of atmosphere. Low pressure is likely to stay put over the same area and likely to become well marked in the next 48hours. The weather system may come a little closer to the coast but largely remaining over the sea.
Remnant of earlier system is now lying as cyclonic circulation over South Chhattisgarh and neighbouring Vidarbha and East Madhya Pradesh. An east-west trough joining these two systems has created a shear zone running across 20°N, from North Madhya Maharashtra to central Odisha. Shear zone is tilting southward with height, extending the convergence zone and associated weather activity stretching from east coast to west coast.
The convective cloud cluster in association with the low pressure is largely confine to the sea. Partly, it has breached coastal and interior parts of North Odisha. The other bunch of convective clouds in association with circulation over Chhattisgarh is spreading over Telangana, Vidarbha, Marathwada and East Madhya Pradesh. Finally, this east-west oriented cloud bands are connecting with the pre existing system over Saurashtra and South Gujarat.
Southwest monsoon will be active to vigorous over the central parts of the country. Heavy rainfall is likely over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Maharashtra (including Mumbai), southern half of Madhya Pradesh, South Rajasthan and South & Central Gujarat over the next 3 days. Isolated very heavy rainfall can not be ruled out over Konkan, North Madhya Maharashtra, Southwest Madhya Pradesh, Southeast Rajasthan and Gujarat, outside Kutch.
Weather system emerging over Bay of Bengal need to be observed for further intensification to a well marked low first and possibly to a depression sometime early next week.
