A fresh low-pressure area has formed over extreme southern parts of Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB), next to the equatorial region and farthest of the South Andaman Sea. The low pressure will move west-northwest and become well-marked in the next 24 hours. The peripherals of the system will reach proximity of the coastline but will take another 24 hours to sound more effective for the state of Tamil Nadu.
The well-marked low-pressure area is likely to position over Southwest BoB, in the vicinity of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coast. The monsoon system generally grows in scale and spreads over Southwest parts of BoB. It may as well, become a mild depression. However, another 24 hours will be needed for observation to make a precision forecast. Irrespective of a well-marked low or depression, the coastline is heading for inclement weather conditions, around mid-week between 11th and 13th Dec 2024.
The entire north-south stretch from Chennai to Kanyakumari will become vulnerable to inclement weather conditions. Chennai, Kancheepuram, Tambaram, Puducherry, Karaikal, Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Pamban, Tuticorin and Tondi will be at risk of heavy to very rainfall. 11th Dec, Wednesday will be more punishing than Thursday, before it starts easing out on 13th Dec. Interiors of Tamil Nadu will get lashed with heavy to very heavy rains on 12th Dec.
The low pressure and its cyclonic circulation will move over the South Peninsula and adjoining interiors of Tamil Nadu on 12th December, itself. Subsequently, the weakened system will move to the Lakshadweep region and Southeast Arabian Sea on 13thDec and will drive scattered rains for Kerala. Thereafter, the system will move further away from the coastline. A fresh wave of another system is expected to move across a similar track, albeit with lesser intensity, between 15th and 17th December 2024.