On the predicted lines, a low-pressure area has formed over Southeast Bangladesh and the adjoining Northeast Bay of Bengal (BoB). It is likely to move to ‘Head Bay’ and neighbouring Gangetic West Bengal in the next 24 hours. Also, the weather system will intensify into a depression over the same region. The depression is likely to remain nearly stationary over that area till 15th September and later ingress over land.
The weather system is an offshoot of the super typhoon Yagi in the South China Sea, which struck Hainan last week. The storm hit North Vietnam later and wrecked that area, with loss of life and material. The weakened system travelled across Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar. The final remnant of the system as cyclonic circulation lay close to Western Myanmar, on the Arakan Coast and neighbourhood of BoB.
The weather system will lash Southern and coastal parts of Bangladesh with extremely heavy rains. Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand will also have moderate rainfall in many places and heavy downpours in isolated places. This is the area where monsoon rains are deficient, for the season. Bihar is deficit by 28% and Gangetic West Bengal has a shortfall of 18% rainfall. The peripherals of the system will take the rainfall belt further to East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha.
Model accuracy drops after a period of 4-5 days. More so, if some error enters the system, it keeps growing with each iteration. Therefore, the track, timelines, spread and intensity of the system cannot be commented upon beyond 16th September. Tentatively, the weather system will track across Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and reach the outskirts of Rajasthan. The forecast is subject to revision and the depression will be under observation for the next 48 hours.
Image Courtesy: Onmanorama
