A cyclonic circulation had been persisting over South Bangladesh and Gangetic West Bengal for the last 48 hours. Under its influence, a low-pressure area has formed over the Northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining parts of West Bengal and Bangladesh. It is likely to become more marked and move over land in the next 48 hours. Monsoon activity will pick up over the eastern states first and roll over to the central region later, over the next one week.
The low-pressure area may become well-marked in the next 24 hours. Also, the eastern end of the monsoon trough is passing through and cutting across East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal. The low-pressure area will be a slow-moving system and is likely to meander over the Bay region, Bangladesh and West Bengal for the next 3 days. Later, the system will move across Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh and travel across Rajasthan and Gujarat by next weekend.
Between 16th and 18th August, the weather activity will be scattered and just light to moderate over West Bengal and the adjoining states. Intensity and spread will increase between the 19th and 22nd of August to cover Bihar, Jharkhand, North Chhattisgarh and East Uttar Pradesh. Following three days, between the 23rd and 25th of August, the system will pick up speed and move across Madhya Pradesh, Southwest Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Model results are not reliable for longer leads, beyond 4-5 days. Accordingly, the forecast will be reviewed as per the actual movement of the system. The system is expected to bring rain over the areas where they are needed most at this time. The deficit rains, as of now, over West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh will find satisfactory wet spells and decent distribution of monsoon rains over the next one week or ten days.
Image Courtesy: Britannica