A low pressure area has formed over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining region. Earlier, the remnant of a cyclonic circulation form Gulf of Thailand and Myanmar entered this area and reorganized in to a low pressure. This is likely to intensify further in to a depression by tomorrow.
Favorable environmental conditions are expected to rapidly strengthen the weather system in to a cyclone, by 02ndDecember, over central parts of Bay of Bengal(BoB). The storm is likely to move northwestward and reach proximity of coastline by 03rdDec, over the west central BoB. Tentative landfall of the storm is likely on 04thDecember.
There is a little uncertainty about the place and time of landfall, as of now. The coastline of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal is at risk of being breached by the storm. Precise time and place of landfall will be authentically predicted after 48hr.
The cyclone will be named as ‘Jawad’. The 1st tropical storm of post monsoon 2021 has the potential to become severe while over the sea. Sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear are supportive of its growth. Tropical storms have the track record of defying the timelines and track.
Therefore, accurate prediction can be made only after the weather system reaches the stage of deep depression with a clearly defined center. Though, the climatology suggest it to be heading for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast, the track can be verified after about 48hr.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman and Nicobar islands over the next 2 days. Thereafter, most of the rainfall activity will be confined to the deep sea. Peripheral weather activity of the storm will reach coastline of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on 03rdDec. North Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal appear to be at high risk of stormy weather with inclement weather conditions.