Under the influence of cyclonic circulation, a low-pressure area formed over the northwest and western parts of the Bay of Bengal (BoB), yesterday. The weather system has already moved inside the coastline and will further track along the interiors of South Odisha, South Chhattisgarh, North Telangana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and finally reach the outskirts of the tri-junction of Madhya Pradesh, North Madhya Maharashtra and Southeast Rajasthan. From here on, the system will recurve towards North Madhya Pradesh and Southwest Uttar Pradesh. Further, the system will weaken and track along the foothills of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
The low-pressure area is likely to spend about four days travelling from the current position over the interiors of Odisha to North Madhya Maharashtra and Southwest Madhya Pradesh. The weather system is likely to meander longer than normal over its westernmost position. This is because, the monsoon is in retreat mode over parts of Rajasthan and the northern plains of Punjab and Haryana.
Fairly widespread rain and thundershowers are likely to lash the eastern, central and western parts of the country, over the next 3-4 days. There will be specifically two pockets which will receive severe weather activity during this period. Firstly, heavy to very heavy rains are expected over the Konkan Coast (including Mumbai), Madhya Maharashtra, South Coastal Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra around the Gulf of Cambay. Another pocket of extreme weather activity will be along the foothills of Uttar Pradesh & Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. The reason being, the shift of the monsoon trough along the foothills, as the low-pressure traverses across the central and western fringes.
The heavy weather will inflict hazardous conditions in both these pockets. The Konkan and Gujarat regions will be vulnerable to disruption in communication and connectivity. Rail, road and air traffic may be hit, simultaneously, in this sector. Inclement weather along the foothills will lead to heavy rainfall in the mountainous terrain of Nepal and the catchment areas. The heavy rains will overflow the water bodies in that area. The river network, which is already under attack in East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, will get compounded further. Most rivers, originating from Nepal and the foothills are likely to get swollen, more and more. The release of water from the capacity full reservoirs and dams, may further worsen the situation.
The weather conditions are likely to improve 28th September onwards, but the water bodies keep responding, even after the recession of rains. The weather activity on these two fronts will also delay the monsoon withdrawal, which just commenced yesterday, from western and northern plains.
Image Courtesy: daily Tribune
