Low Pressure Area Forming Over Bay Of Bengal, Monsoon Goes On Bubbly Spree

First  low pressure area of September is likely to form shortly over Bay of Bengal.  This weather system is entering BoB from Myanmar on 05^thSeptember and  crosses over to Indian landmass within 48 hours. A cyclonic circulation is forming over  Gulf of Martaban and adjoining area on 04^thSep. This feature will move over ‘Mouth of the Irrawaddy’ jumping across  Yangon, Pyapon and Pathein of Myanmar region. 

It will also turn in to a well marked cyclonic circulation on 5^thSep and shifts over Northeast and adjoining North Bay. Moving westward towards the Indian coast, it is expected to become a low pressure area over Northwest Bay, off South Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh coast on 06^th September.

The maiden low pressure of September will track northwest and travel across Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telagana, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. While over West Madhya Pradesh, the peripheral reach of the system will impact weather conditions of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttrakhand.

The spread of the system will be unusually large to result intense weather activity, possibly with some flooding rains over Madhya Pradesh and some parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan. The weather system will have a tendency to stagnate over West and North Madhya Pradesh between 08^th and 11^thSeptember.

The wet spell over large parts of central and northern parts of the country will be somewhat compensatory to the shortfall witnessed during August.  Pan India rainfall deficiency of 9% as of 03^rdSep may take a dip by couple of notches. The central region reeling with seasonal deficiency of 13% may reduce the margin to a single digit shortfall by 10^thSeptember. 

Courtesy this low pressure area, parched state of Gujarat will witness another wet spell in quick succession of the previous one. However, this time, North and Central Gujarat may become the chief beneficiary rather than Saurashtra and Kutch.

Parts of  Rajasthan , specially the western half, could be heading for the last spell of this season. Monsoon starts showing signs of withdrawal from that region anytime after 10^th September. Sporadic rain, if any, after this period may be considered as ‘bonus’. West Rajasthan is one of the deficit  pockets this season stumbling with a critical shortfall of over 20% rainfall.