As expected, a cyclonic circulation emerged over central and eastern parts of Bay of Bengal (BoB). The system meandered over that area for nearly 48hours. It is reasonably organized now and a consolidated circulation, extending up to medium levels of atmosphere, is placed over Northwest and West-Central BoB, in the close proximity of coastline of West Bengal and Odisha. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region, in the next 24hr.
The confluence zone of the system is extending far ahead of the center of cyclonic circulation, covering many parts deep inland. Accordingly, weather activity will commence today itself over West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha. Low pressure area is expected to move inland tomorrow itself. The system will move northwestward slowly to reach parts of Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh. Unlike the previous system, this low pressure will not travel very far over land and from central parts of Madhya Pradesh will recurve. Initially, it will track more of northwest and northward and later northeastward towards Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Weather system will result in active monsoon conditions over West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. The peripherals will reach up to parts of Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana and West Rajasthan may stay outside the reach and remain dry till 23rdSep.
The low pressure will weaken over Uttar Pradesh and adjoining parts of Madhya Pradesh and Bihar on 23rdSep. However, the cyclonic circulation remains for subsequent 48hr over Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh. Finally, the system will break up along the foothills and merge with the monsoon trough. Close on the heels of this system, another cyclonic circulation may come up over Bay of Bengal towards fag end of September.
