Much anticipated low pressure area is likely to form shortly over northwest Bay of Bengal(BoB). A cyclonic circulation is persisting over northwest and adjoining west central BoB extending up to middle layers of troposphere. Maiden low pressure area of August is expected to form within 24hr over the same region, off South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
This weather system will quickly become well marked and also cross Odisha coast nearly 12hr after formation. The low pressure will travel across Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The peripheral of the system will also influence weather activity over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttrakhand. Northeast India including Sikkim and Sub Himalayan West Bengal also will receive heavy rain and thundershower for the next 3days.
The eastern end of the monsoon trough has already shifted south to its normal position. However, the western end continue to run close to the foothill and is expected to move southward after 48hr, once the low pressure moves over Madhya Pradesh on 18thAug. The entire stretch of monsoon trough will keep changing its position, depending on the location of low pressure area. Accordingly, the weather belt will also shift from east to west across the eastern and central parts of the country covering West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra between 16th and 20thAug. Parallelly, state of Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, North Gujarat, Delhi and Uttrakhand will witness active monsoon conditions during 18th and 22ndAugust. The remnant of this system will cause limited weather activity over parts of Punjab and Haryana.
The weak phase of the monsoon will soon end and active to vigorous conditions will prevail for nearly one week over the east, central and few northern parts of the country. The rainfall deficit of August and the season as well will recover to some extent. Monsoon rainfall deficiency of 8% so far may catch up by 3-4% during this wet spell.