After observing active Monsoon conditions for a couple of days, the southern parts of India have entered a sluggish phase. However, the weather activity will not get doused completely for the next three days but will remain confined to limited regions with suppressed intensity and spread. Following this, a lean phase is likely with a near absence of northeast monsoon almost over the entire region between 22nd and 24th Nov 2024. This small break may as well be a ‘lull before the storm’. There are early signs of a tropical cyclone likely to evolve over the Bay of Bengal.
Presently, there is a cyclonic circulation over the Maldives area and a trough extending towards the Lakshadweep region. There is another trough across the Gulf of Mannar and South Coastal Tamil Nadu in the lower levels. These two features will keep the northeast monsoon active, albeit in a limited area of South Tamil Nadu and some parts of Kerala. In the past 24 hours, the coastal and interiors of Tamil Nadu like Pamban, Tondi, Karaikal, Atiramapattinam and Kodaikanal received moderate rainfall. Scattered light rainfall was observed over the state of Kerala as well. A similar pattern but with reduced intensity is likely for the next 3-4 days. Subsequently, the weakening and shifting of the weather systems will lead to a ‘break’ in the northeast monsoon activity till 24th Nov 2024. Heavy weather activity is anticipated during the last week of November over Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
There is a likelihood of a major weather system emerging over the South Bay of Bengal. The system may turn into a tropical storm and head for Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. The timelines and impact of this weather system will need an observation period of 2-3 days. Tentatively, the southern states of the country need to prepare and embrace tough weather scenarios, sometime during the last week of November.