Northeast monsoon has performed satisfactorily so far. All the five sub-divisions namely, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka have either normal or excess seasonal rainfall. South Interior Karnataka is the best performer with 74% excess rainfall, followed by Rayalaseema with a surplus of 62%. Kerala has been the least rainiest and has a shortfall of 16% rainfall.
Monsoon rains were good during the last week between the 21st and 25th October. Later, the formation and travel of cyclone Dana over the North Bay of Bengal softened the monsoon stream over the South Peninsula and the rains shifted to Odisha and West Bengal. The slow pace and minimal weather activity continued across the region for the fourth consecutive day, yesterday. This pattern is likely to continue till 31st October and an uptick, thereafter.
There are no active weather systems over the Indian Seas on either side of the coastline. A weak cyclonic circulation is marked over South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh up to medium levels. Another circulation is placed quite far from the coastline in the Southwest Arabian Sea, inconsequential for any weather activity over the South Peninsula. States of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal and Bihar will have light to moderate rainfall over the next three days.
There is a likelihood of two cyclonic circulations forming over Sri Lanka in the proximity of Palk Strait and Gulf of Mannar, moving east to west, in tandem over Comorin and Maldives region between 01st-07th November. This will trigger scattered rain and thundershowers over the South Peninsula during this period. However, no heavy rainfall is expected for a longer duration. The state of Kerala and the interiors of Tamil Nadu will have increased spread and intensity of rainfall. Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka will witness just light to moderate and intermittent activity during this period.
