Southwest Monsoon has progressed well along the West Coast and Mumbai recorded onset before the due date. Kolkata and Mumbai have the same onset date of Monsoon and Mumbai invariably scores over Kolkata. The northern limit of the monsoon has not moved further on the eastern flank. Courtesy, cyclone Remal, the southwest monsoon advanced over entire Northeast India in one go. However, it remains short of Kolkata even after nearly two weeks of ingression over Bangladesh.
The capital city Kolkata received light pre-monsoon showers on 2 days in June. There has been no rainfall recorded at regional observatory Alipore, airport observatory Dumdum and Howrah-Hooghly during the last three days. Monsoon is desperately awaited over the state of West Bengal, which normally commences around the 10th of June and gets completed by the 15th of June. There is a delay likely this season and the city of Kolkata mar receive the first monsoon showers, after 15th June.
There is no monsoon system likely to come up over the Bay of Bengal in the next week. Presently, there is a cyclonic circulation near the Gulf of Martaban, along the Myanmar coast. This system will move along Myanmar-Bangladesh coast and take the rainfall belt along. This circulation is likely to weaken and the remnant likely to reach the extreme Northeast Bay of Bengal and Coastal parts of Bangladesh, by this weekend. This will push the monsoon rains over Northeast India, yet again, for the second time after the onset of monsoon.
The weakened circulation and resultant change in the wind pattern will spill over the monsoon rains over southern parts of the Gangetic West Bengal to start with, anytime after 15th June. These rains are likely to be light and scattered. Therefore, the onset of monsoon over Kolkata may not be with a bang, like Mumbai. It could be a soft start on around 16th June and may pick up the intensity and spread around 20th June and later.
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