It usually rains in the Winters on the Northern Hills, however the month of January and February are the rainiest for the trio hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Rain often corresponds to snow on the higher reaches.
Winters are also the harshest period when heavy snowfall, Avalanches and a severe Cold Wave grips the area. However, the same rain and snow are also the harbingers of prosperity for the region. Precipitation in any form whatsoever in the months of December, January and February is the lifeline for the residents in this area as it brings along festivities, tourism, fresh water, harvest and lots of blush red apples with itself. There is no doubt why the performance of this season alone, very well dictates the rest of the year.
The below graphs take a look at rainfall data for the months of January and February since 2012 till present. Have a look-
Looking at the above graphs, we can infer a lot. If we take the case of recent past, 2016 and 2018 have turned out to be rather poor years in terms of rain and snow when the rain deficiency was almost exceeding 60% across Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakhand.
Moreover, last year was the poorest of all with the month of January receiving just a meagre amount of precipitation. It’s a rare thing when the trio states performed simultaneously good in a single year whereas there are years when simultaneous failure has been witnessed. Looking at the graph we see 2017 has been the best year so far for the state of Jammu and Kashmir while 2013 was the year for Himachal and Uttarakhand.
Taking a look at the current scenario, December 2018 has turned out to be a poor show across the region and a large deficit is being carried along further. This year, January started with a good note for the hilly states when the mid and higher reaches received fairly good spells. Now as well, from January 4 to 6 there is a possibility of heavy rainfall over the hills. After this, another rainy spell is likely on January 12 and 14 wherein few areas will receive rain and snow.
For further weather forecast along the rest of winters, we can only keep our fingers crossed as a lot of uncertainty is involved in generating forecast for mountainous terrain.
This is a combined piece from people at Skymet where we have put together an analysis of rains and snowfall over hills in North India. Recently, the country lost a Jawan posted in Poonch sector of Jammu and Kashmir due to an Avalanche. Many other were injured. If only we were gifted with a science that could make precisely-accurate fore-warnings of all things weather, imagine how many lives we could affect and save! Having a prior idea as to how weather works and how it might turn out never fails to help. Hope this article helps you give a better picture for what has and what is going to come for the Northern Hills!
Image Credits – jakhuropewayshimla.com
Any information taken from here should be credited to Skymet Weather