The Monsoon surge strengthened over Kerala from July 17 as the offshore trough became more active. Since then Vigorous Monsoon rains are being witnessed along the West Coast.
In last 24 hours, rainfall has been fairly widespread in entire Kerala. Kochi received 21.6 mm of rainfall, while Kannur recorded 36.6 mm of rain.
Some places received heavy showers as well. Accordingly, the rainfall deficit for this season in Kerala has come down to - 25%, as on July 20. Till July 17, the cumulative rainfall deficiency had mounted up to 32%.
The daily average rainfall in Kerala is the highest in India, after Coastal Karnataka and Konkan & Goa. Kerala normally receives around 20 to 25 mm of rain every day in the second half of July. For the last 3 days, Kerala has been receiving more rains than the daily average. For instance, the state received 58.8 mm of rain on July 18, against the normal average of 20.5 mm. Similarly, on July 19 and 20 Kerala received 39.3 mm and 26.9 mm of rainfall, respectively. The average rainfall figures for both the above mentioned days do not exceed 23 mm.
We can conclude from the above figures that places with such high daily average rainfall amounts, do not witness major drop in the cumulative rainfall deficiency in just few days.
Monsoon forecast for Kerala
Moderate to heavy Monsoon showers will continue along the West Coast including Kerala for next 48 hours. In fact, the cumulative rainfall deficiency could come down to normal levels by the end of July.
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Updated on July 17, 2015 05:00 PM (IST): Heavy Monsoon showers in Kerala
Kerala generally receives very heavy showers during the Southwest Monsoon season. Rain along the West Coast including Kerala mostly depends on the offshore trough and systems in the Bay of Bengal. As of now, the offshore trough is gaining strength and a low pressure area is brewing in the Bay of Bengal.
These weather systems are expected to bring heavy showers in Kerala at least for next 48 hours. In fact, it has already started raining in the state. In a span of 6 hours from 8.30 am on Friday, Kochi recorded 38 mm of rain, Alappuzha 20 mm, Kozhikode 18 mm and Thiruvananthapuram 7 mm of rainfall.
Kerala missed its official Monsoon onset date of June 1, this year. Pre-Monsoon showers picked up from June 3 and gradually intensified. This led to the declaration of Monsoon onset on June 5. Thereafter, Southwest Monsoon went through a weak phase in the state.
Right after the onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala, Cyclone Ashobaa started moving towards coastal areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka. Thus, rainfall reduced over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and South Interior Karnataka. Overall Monsoon 2105 has been weak in the state.
The rainfall deficiency has mounted up to 32%. The offshore trough has been mostly dormant and only two systems have developed in the Bay of Bengal so far. The one developing at present will be the third weather system to come up in the Bay this season. Moreover, the weather systems have not been long-lived. The trough and the low pressure area will complement each other and bring heavy Monsoon showers in Kerala.
Also see the Monsoon Rainfall Forecast (in images)
Image credit - Isisholidays