Monsoon rains have skipped Kerala this season, despite early onset on 29thMay 2022. All 14 districts of the state have witnessed extremely poor rainfall between 01st – 10th June 2022. On the basis of geography, the state’s districts have been grouped in to 3 parts : North Kerala – Kasaragode, Kannur, Wayanad, Kozhikode : Central Kerala - Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Malappuram, Palakkad : South Kerala – Alappuzha, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Thiruvananthapuram. At least one district in each part has observed large deficiency ( rainfall deficiency >/= 60% ). Central districts performed shade better than the other two. Largely deficit districts (>80%) were Kasaragode (-85%), Palakkad ( -85%) and Wayanad ( -82%).
Between 01-10 June, the state of Kerala has recoded 71.5mm of rainfall against the normal of 182.2mm. The state is categorized as ‘large deficit’ with a shortfall of -61% during this period. Earlier, the week from 26thMay to 01st June recorded rainfall of 71.5mm against the normal of 75.1mm, below average by mere 5%. However, the subsequent week, after arrival of monsoon between 02nd- 08thJune registered only 48.6mm of rainfall against the normal of 132.6mm, largely scarce by 63%.
State of Kerala has generally remained below the threshold mark in June in the recent past, except in 2018. Considering high volumes of rainfall (appx. 650mm) in June, a variation of +/- 10% is understandable. Anything beyond that, on repeated occasions calls for revision in the normal, on long term data base. Monthly rainfall for June till 2018 was assessed at 649.8mm and after revision, was dropped to 643mm since 2019.
June Rainfall – Kerala (mm) : Surplus/ Deficiency ( %age)
Kerala rains have made a weakest start amidst buzz of good monsoon. These are early days and turn around later can not be ruled out. However, the prevailing meteorological conditions do not promise anything big, over the next 10 days. No significant monsoon system is likely on either side of the coast to boost the monsoon surge. Accordingly, no major recovery is visualized and chance of improvement rolls over to, beyond 3rd week of June.
