The state has been witnessing moderate rains with one or two heavy spells for the past many days. In span of 24 hours from 8:30 am on Tuesday, Kottayam recorded 31 mm of rain, followed by Punalur 20 mm, Kochi 15 mm, Thiruvananthapuram 11 mm and Alappuzha 8 mm.
We have been constantly saying that at present, ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) is situated close to the equator, along with a series of embedded cyclonic circulations, moving from east to west direction. This has also led to the formation of a cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and Southeast Arabian Sea.
This system has been moving favourable weather conditions and is showing signs of getting more marked. We expect it to induce a low-pressure area or even a well-marked low-pressure area by October 5 off the Kerala Coast.
Moving northwestwards, the system would intensify rapidly into a depression, deep depression and later into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 48 hours. According to weathermen, warm sea surface temperatures to the tune of 29°C or 30°C and low wind shear are the perfect conditions for the formation of cyclonic storm. If this develops, this tropical storm would be named as ‘Cyclone Luban’.
Spiral bands of this potential storm would be extending beyond 500 km, having an effective reach over most parts of the state. This would be potential of giving heavy to extremely heavy rains over Kerala in the coming days.
As per weathermen, moderate rains with potential heavy rains would lash Kerala for the next 24 hours.
Also Read: Cyclonic storm brewing in Arabian Sea, Kerala to bear maximum brunt
With system getting more organized, rains would intensify, and heavy rains would start lashing most parts of Kerala, October 5 onwards. We advise people to exercise caution from October 5-8 as some exceptionally heavy rains accompanied with squally winds are in site.
Threat of localized flash flooding, landslides and over flowing of rivers and dams is looming large over the state.
For Kerala, October is the rainiest month during the Northeast Monsoon, which spans from October to December.
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