Kerala has been lashed with heavy rains for the last about 5 days. Similar activity will continue for the next 48 hours and ease out, thereafter. Intense rainfall is expected all along the coastline of the state in the next 24 hours and mostly be concentrated over the northern half of the state, a day later on 19th July. Substantial relief is expected later between 20th and 25th July 2024.
The state of Kerala had a high rainfall deficit in the month of June. A shortfall of 25% rainfall in June had further increased to above 30% by halfway through July. Courtesy, of good rainfall during the last week, the deficit has significantly dropped to 15% which is within the normal range. Good rains over the next two days will shrink this margin further by 6-7% and may as well slide to single digit.
There is a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal, likely to become a low-pressure area by tomorrow. This system is accentuating the monsoon surge along the coastline of Kerala. Rainfall will be more intense over the northern half of the state. Locations like Kudlu, Kasargod, Kannur, Thalaserry, Wayanad, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Palakkad, Thrissur and Kottayam will be at risk of having heavy downpours, more so, in the evening and night hours. The low pressure will move deep inland by 20th-21st July. The surge along the coast will weaken and the rains also will ease out, as early as the weekend, on the 20th & 21st of July 2024. The better weather conditions will extend to the start of next week also and remain good past mid-week next.
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