July and August are the core monsoon months and July is the rainiest of the two. Large deficiency, if any during these months spell ‘doom’ for the farmers and conversely, the monsoon bounty showers thrill and joy. After having early scare in June of deficient rains, July saved the grace from the word go and performed splendidly. Though, unable to fill the gaps of shortfall over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, the core monsoon rainfed zone of central parts are hurling surplus by big margins.
July being the rainiest month, always has daunting task of meeting the target. Success and failure have been shared equitably in the last 25 years. There was a completely parched July in the severe drought year of 2002, with merely 143.5mm of rainfall against the monthly normal of 285.3mm. Reciprocally, the modest year of 2005 clinched mammoth total of 333.7mm, the highest so far in the last quarter century. July 2022 remains in race to reach or exceed this record.
Month of July has received 306.8mm of rainfall between 01st and 28thJuly and therefore surpassed the mark of 300mm. It had the distinction of sustaining the Pan-India surplus of >/= 10% continuously during the 2nd half of the month so far. This is despite the fact that, June ended on a submissive note with a countrywide shortfall of 8% rainfall. Four of the three homogenous regions ( North, South, Center) observed deficiency ranging from 12% to 30%. Courtesy flooding rains, Northeast India was the sole pocket having excess rainfall. July has not only overcome this shortfall, it has gone past the normal mark in the 3 deficient regions. Central India and South Peninsula have gathered huge surplus of 25% and 30% rainfall respectively.
July by itself, is surplus with 21% of rainfall. Remaining 3 days of July may not amass any surplus rains, but still suffice to take the monthly total close to the record of last 25 years. July may wind up the seasonal rainfall of 1st half (June & July) anywhere close to 109% of long period average.