Month of July faired rather well and beyond expectations. Between 01stJuly and 30thJuly, it has rained 314.7mm, about 14% above the long period average. July has a monthly normal of 280.5mm rainfall, the rainiest monsoon month. Pan India rainfall has taken a dip to stay below the normal, for the last 3 days.
the southwest monsoon season accounts for over 70% of annual rainfall. July and August are the core monsoon months, claiming 62% of the seasonal rainfall. July and August, together measure 534.9mm rainfall against the seasonal average of 868.6mm. in July 2023, daily rainfall exceeded the normal rainfall on 19 days and below the average on 12 days. However, the margin of excess rainfall far exceeded the deficit days and the month will end with a surplus of about 13-14% rainfall.
As of 30thJuly, the month has accumulated 314.7mm of rainfall. The last day is expected to record about </= 5mm. Monthly total is not likely to exceed 320mm rainfall. In the last 30 years, 1994 was the rainiest with 352.4mm rainfall. Otherwise, 1959 had been the rainiest in the last 100 years witnessing a deluge of 375.5mm. Since 1994, two other rainiest months were July 2005 and July 2022, with respective monthly rainfall of 333.7mm and 327.7mm. Accordingly, July 2023 will end up as 4th rainiest month since 1994.
Monsoon surge is likely to weaken in the coming days. However, decent monsoon showers are expected over the parts which need them most. There is large deficit over Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, to the tune of 40-50%. Monsoon is likely to enter in to a weak phase post 03rd August, for a prolonged spell. While the deficiency over the eastern parts, inclusive of Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal may shrink over the next 5-6 days, rains are likely to be scanty over the western, central and southern parts of the country.