The Application Laboratory of the Japanese National Weather Forecasting agency, ‘JAMSTEC’ has corroborated Skymet’s Southwest Monsoon forecast for 2018 for Indian mainland.
On April 4, 2018, Skymet Weather issued its forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2018 predicting normal rains to the tune of 100% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm from June to September.
Jamstec has predicted a wetter than normal conditions for India, thereby validating Skymet’s Monsoonal forecast for 2018. Jamstec also expects seasonally averaged rainfall this summer for the country.
The agency also corroborated Skymet’s forecast of excess rainfall in June and expects it to be above normal barring parts of Interior Southern Peninsula, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu.
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Moreover, July forecast of the agency is also similar to Skymet’s prediction wherein Monsoon would be reasonably good for most parts of the country except in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and in Northeast India.
For the four-month-long Monsoon season spanning from June to September, Skymet has forecasted 111% rains of the long period average in the month of June. Thereafter, due to a gradual warming of Pacific Ocean, devolving La Niña conditions may suppress the active Monsoon phase a little to record lower than normal rains.
Accordingly, July and August would see comparatively lesser rain to the tune of 97% and 96% of LPA, respectively. However, the concluding month of Southwest Monsoon, September may witness an increase in the rains again on account of IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) and MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) to end up with 101% of LPA.
IOD is also expected to be in a positive phase later in the summer season. In case of a positive IOD, the western basin of the Indian Ocean warms up relative to the East and is considered favorable for the enhancement of rainfall activities over the Indian region.
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