The Southwest Monsoon withdraws from the hills of North India by the end of September after which the transition into winter months begin. From October to December mild to moderate winter is experienced while cold peaks in the months of January and February in all the three hill states. The winter season starts in October and withdraws from the hills by the end of March.
If we look at the past seven years, from 2012-2018, all the three hill states of North India had failed to observe good winter rain and snow. They had either been deficient or largely deficient. For instance, Himachal Pradesh recorded deficient rains on all the seven occasions mentioned above while Jammu and Kashmir was deficient on five instances. And Uttarakhand has seen six years of deficient rains out of the seven years.
Years 2016 and 2017 was a total failure for all the three hills of North India, ie, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The year 2018 was, however, a shade better for Jammu and Kashmir but it proved poor for Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
That way year 2019 has been a little exceptional, all the three hilly states during the months of October and November are either observing precipitation in excess or large excess. During this period Jammu and Kashmir is experiencing a large excess of 171%, while Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are excess by 49% and 33%, respectively.
The large share of this excess rainfall was experienced in November. Rains in October was, however, on the lower side of normal.
The hills witnessed early snow and the first spell of good snow was seen on November 6 while the second round was observed on November 12. Snowfall became heavier by the fag end of November.
The month of December also looks promising. Even from January 2019-March 2019, thick winters were witnessed and all three hilly states either ended with precipitation in excess or large excess. As Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand were excess/ large excess by 68%, 43%, and 90% respectively.
In the coming one week, no significant activity is expected, the sky will be clear and cold conditions will be dominating. As per our experts, significant spells will be seen between December 10-15 wherein the intensity of precipitation will be more on December 11, 12 and 13 and on December 14 and 15 there will be a dip in the activities.
It is too early to say but by the end of December, we will see another good spell around December 27 or 28.
A fair amount of Western Disturbances has been a sight and they are visible without any long pause. The month of December hopefully promises two spells and just in case if in some weather system turns up in between these systems then it will be a bonus.
Image Credits – MakeMyTrip
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