Strong Western disturbance has eluded the western Himalayas during this winter. We have not seen any significant Western Disturbance during November and December. In the month of January, three intense Western disturbances approached Western Himalayas and dumped moderate to heavy snowfall leading to winter chill across hills, Northern Plains as well as over Central India.
February also witnessed fewer than normal Western Disturbances. Although the last Western disturbance of February between 27 and 28 was of moderate intensity. Moderate-intensity Western disturbance is usually continuing until March and starts moving over upper latitudes in April. Western disturbance is a very important weather phenomenon as it is responsible for snowfall over Hills. Snowfall is essential for restoring the snow cover of glaciers as well as for water flow to the rivers originating from there. Induced cyclonic circulation in the wake of Western disturbance gives winter rain to North India. Which is important for the soil moisture.
A fresh Western disturbance may approach Western Himalayas by March 4th, but it will be feeble. We do not foresee any significant Western disturbance approaching Hills for at least next 15 days. Therefore, the month of March may also witness dry weather conditions over Hills of Western Himalayas.