Initial period of March has witnessed an active Western disturbance phase this year. Pre monsoon activities were witness over parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra until the first week of March. Western disturbances usually continuous with moderate intensity until mid-March and sometimes and until end of March also. But since March 4 we have not seen any significant Western disturbance approaching Western Himalayas.
A fresh Western disturbance may approach Jammu Kashmir by evening of March 18. There are chances of light to moderate rain with isolated snowfall over Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad pass of Ladakh and Jammu Kashmir between March 18 and 20.
Western disturbance starts impacting Western Himalayas from month of October and continues until March. Peak intensity is it during December and January. These weather systems are governed by the position of sun. After autumn Equinox when sun starts travelling in Southern hemisphere western disturbances also starts travelling in a lower latitude and impacts western Himalayas from month of October.
After spring Equinox, which is around March 20 or 21, some stars travelling towards Northern hemisphere and western disturbances also start travelling in upper latitudes.
Now the intensity and frequency of Western disturbances will keep on decreasing and weather will be almost dry over Western Himalayas post March 20. There may be weak Western disturbances which may approach Western Himalayas, but their impact will be negligible.