The Pre-Monsoon season is at its peak during the month of May. While many areas receive good Pre-Monsoon showers during this period, Chennai does not receive intense rains. However, some pre-Monsoon showers remain on the cards during the month of May.
During the months of April and May, strong weather systems with the capability of intensifying into a cyclonic storm form in the Bay of Bengal. The formation of these cyclonic storms are more frequent and intense during the month of May as compared to April.
These cyclones track across the Bay of Bengal and usually head towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. The ones that do target the Indian coastline affect the weather patterns in Andhra Pradesh. And Odisha. These severe storms usually avoid Chennai and Tamil Nadu.
However, on some rare occasions, these weather systems head towards Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. This time also, the depression, which has formed in the Southwest Bay of Bengal continues to linger close to the Tamil Nadu and the Sri Lankan coast. This weather system is expected to intensify into a deep depression soon and has the potential to further intensify into a mild cyclonic storm as well.
Coincidentally, the last time Chennai received such heavy showers in May was during the year 2010. Just like the present year, 2010 was also the year that succeeded a strong El Nino. During that time, Chennai recorded a whopping 109.7 mm in a span of 24 hours. The numerical model generated weather pattern as observed during this spell is shown in the animation below.
Chennai rains have followed the same pattern during May 2016 as well. In fact, during the last 33 hours until 5:30 pm today, Chennai has recorded 115 mm of rainfall. Skymet predicts that the city will receive heavy showers during the next 24 to 48 hours. The weather activity experienced over the last two days and the prediction for the next four days is as shown in the animation below.
Flooding rain is possible over the capital city of Tamil Nadu during the next two days. It is advisable for people living close to the coast, particularly in the low lying areas to move to safer areas for the likely duration of two to three days. During this time, seas will also remain rough and fishermen have been warned not to venture out in the sea.