Northeast Monsoon sees systems on both sides, including the Bay of Bengal as well as the Arabian Sea. However, systems appear more over the Bay of Bengal, but systems on either side are severe and get to observe favourable conditions including wind shear, high sea surface temperatures. A boost comes to these systems when the other added features including IOD and MJO come up.
The Arabian Sea has a complex weather cradle as compared to the Bay of Bengal. The insitu systems form there, particularly over Lakshadweep Islands. The second aspect here is that some systems that form in Bay of Bengal and head for Tamil Nadu, at times move across and get activated once again as they reach Arabian Sea.
Usually systems that do form in the lower latitudes have a smaller stretch of landmass, which is the only time that the system is not able to grow. In fact, due to limited landmass between the two sides, the source of the lifeline is not cut off completely.
One such system is currently brewing in the Southeast Bay of Bengal which is expected to intensify becoming a well marked low pressure area and may also become a depression. In fact, thereafter, the system may cross over and gain strength in the Arabian Sea, in favourable waters.
The effect of the system will mostly be over southern parts of Tamil Nadu and the mid regions, while Chennai may not bear the brunt as rains will be on the lower side.
There are chances that the system may intensify further in the Arabian Sea and the possibility of the system even intensifying into a storm cannot be ruled out. There is no consensus among the various models. It remains complex for the system’s movement. The system has chances of moving towards Yemen. However, the system can recurve, moving towards the Gujarat region, causing rains over these areas.
In fact, if the system gains strength and becomes a storm, it will be the first storm of the Northeast Monsoon season in the Arabian Sea.
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