At present, all the three Indian seas including the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea have become turbulent, giving rise to several weather systems.
India witnesses two cyclone seasons in a year. First is during pre-Monsoon season in April and May, while other is during post-Monsoon season in October and November. During this, all the Indian seas become active and may see several systems coming up. However, all these weather systems do not transform into cyclones.
Second cyclonic circulation in Bay of Bengal
Now, the active Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has given rise to another cyclonic circulation in Bay of Bengal. This system is presently marked in Southwest Bay of Bengal off the Sri Lanka coast.
Weathermen at Skymet Weather suggest that dynamics of these weather systems are such that two systems lying in close proximity cannot exist aloof and have a tendency of merging together.
Thereafter, it is likely to strengthen into a depression and then possibly become the first cyclonic storm of the season.
This system will be responsible for the onset of Southwest Monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands before the scheduled arrival.
Also read: First cyclonic storm likely to develop in Bay of Bengal
The system is likely to stay in close proximity of the Indian coast and hence, threatening the vast stretch of coastline right from Tamil Nadu across Andhra Pradesh to Odisha.
Also some of the weather models are indicating that the core of the system may only skirt the East Coast but finally head towards Bangladesh or Myanmar.
Another weather system in Arabian Sea
The active ITCZ is also indicating some disturbances are likely to emerge in Arabian Sea but that needs to be observed for few more days.
The weather models are suggesting that we could see a system developing in Arabian Sea by May 21 or 22.
If this system comes up, it would enhance rains over West Coast, particularly over Karnataka and Kerala and could also spread further. However, we need to wait and watch.