As predicted earlier by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the onset of Northeast Monsoon in the Indian sub-continent makes it susceptible for cyclones during this period. The predictions turn true. Under the influence of cyclonic circulation which was developing over Gulf of Thailand, a low pressure area has formed over Tenasserim coast area adjoining Andaman Sea.
The low pressure area is expected to rapidly convert into a depression, followed closely by a deep depression. As it transforms into a deep depression, the cyclonic circulation will move in a west-northwest direction, over the central Bay of Bengal, becoming a possible cyclonic storm by 9th October.
As it moves further, it will make a possible landfall by 11th October by the name of cyclone HUDHUD named by Oman. The landfall will be accompanied by strong winds and heavy rainfall observed mainly in Visakhapatnam and Machilipatnam and parts of Odisha and West Bengal. 9th October onward cloudy sky will hover over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha while heavy rains are expected in the area 10th onward.
Peculiarity of the current storm
Tropical cyclones are notoriously famous for their uncertain intensity and track, defying the timelines many a times. This low pressure exhibits similar pattern due to the following reasons.
a) Beginning of October, the storms do not enter the Andaman Seas from the Gulf of Thailand.
b) In October, 70% of the cyclonic storms head for Odisha and West Bengal. 20% head to Bangladesh and Myanmar. The rest sometimes fizzle out.
c) The current tropical storm is moving straight, cutting short its sea travel right from its inception to its landfall. This may not allow the system to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm.
Reminiscence of Phailin
The tropical storm reminds of last year’s monstrous cyclone Phailin that made a landfall at the Odisha coast on 13th October at a wind speed of over 220 kmph, uprooting thousands of trees with some falling on residents, claiming lives of about twenty three in Ganjam district, the worst affected by Phailin.
