On April 12, 2016, Skymet Weather had released its first Monsoon 2016 forecast, sighting the timely appearance of Monsoon 2016. As per the latest updates, we expect Monsoon to reach Indian mainland between May 28 and May 30.
Monsoon Onset
It is likely to reach over Andaman and Nicobar Islands between May 18 and May 20. Thereafter, Southwest Monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala between May 28 and May 30, simultaneously covering some parts of Northeast India.
As we progress further, Monsoon will cover most parts of South India and entire northeastern states by first week of June.
Skymet Weather predicts that eastern arm of the Monsoon will move on a faster pace as compared to its western arm. In view of this, it is expected to reach Kolkata by June 10. While, Mumbai will have to wait little more and is likely to witness onset with a short delay between June 12 and June 14.
Advancement of Monsoon is expected to be slow over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Most parts of these states will be covered by June 25.
Monsoon is likely to mark its onset over Delhi by July 1. Subsequently, almost all parts of the country barring West Rajasthan will be covered between July 1 and July 7. Further, Monsoon will cover the entire country before July 15.
Also read: Expected onset dates of Monsoon 2016 in different parts of country
Reasons for the early onset of Monsoon 2016
The presence of active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Indian Ocean is primarily responsible for bringing the Monsoon 2016 little early.
According to weathermen at Skymet Weather, several active cyclonic circulations can be seen embedded in ITCZ. Besides this, cloud configuration, atmospheric conditions and oceanic parameters are also indicating towards the favourable weather conditions for the early arrival of Monsoon.
However, onset of Monsoon does not have any direct link with its progress or performance.
El-Niño and Monsoon 2016
An evolving and strong El-Niño in 2014 and 2015, respectively, had marred the Monsoon performance resulting in two consecutive drought years.
El-Niño is on decline now and is likely to become neutral sometime around June. This will lead to better Monsoon conditions and we expect, Monsoon 2016 to end up above normal.