The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its monsoon forecast for 2015 in which the season's rainfall is assessed at 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ± 5%. While Skymet Meteorology Division in India in its monsoon foreshadow released on April 16 had put the figure at 102% (error margin of ± 4%) of the LPA of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
According to Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, “The El Nino is likely to continue into the summer months and taper down thereafter. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on monsoon performance”. IMD has also said that weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Pacific.
IMD in its press release has further said that it is keeping a close eye on the ENSO conditions- a phenomenon wherein the Central and East Pacific ocean warms (El Nino) or cools (La Nina), in turn affecting rainfall in India.
According to Skymet, there is no clear signal about the emergence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – one among various factors responsible for influencing Indian monsoon. IMD has however, said, “Slight negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are prevailing over the India Ocean.
Taking all prospects into consideration, Skymet has put the chance of normal rain at 49%, while IMD has put it at 28%. The chances of above normal rain is 25%, according to Skymet. Whereas IMD has given a very bleak prospect (3%) of above normal rain. The chances of below normal rain has been put at a staggering 68% by IMD. Skymet has however, forecast 18% chance of below normal rain. And the chances of excess rain is only 1%, according to IMD.
As 2015 is an El Nino year, it is important to note that not all El Nino years lead to below normal rain in India. For instance, 1997-98 was a strong El Nino year but the rainfall was in excess and recorded at 103% of the LPA. On the other hand, a moderate El Nino in 2002 resulted in one of the worst droughts in the country.
And in last 130 years there has been only three occasions when back to back drought years (1985, 1986, 1987, 1965 and 1966) have been observed. India had witnessed drought in 2014 as the rainfall was 88% of the LPA. So going by the historical data the chances of drought in 2015 is very rare.
As always, we will share monthly updates along with regular rainfall observations on our website in the coming months.
Picture courtesy: ekantipur.com
