The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its Monsoon forecast for 2014 and put the Monsoon figure at 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ± 5%, which corroborates Skymet’s observation of below normal monsoon rain.
Earlier, on April 15, Skymet had released its Monsoon foreshadow for 2014, where it confirmed the coming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ at 94% (error margin of ± 4%) of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
IMD in its press release has termed ENSO - a phenomenon wherein the Central and East Pacific ocean warms (El Niño) or cools (La Niña), in turn affecting rainfall in India - as the reason behind weak monsoon. It says “ENSO conditions in the Equatorial Pacific continue to be normal. However, the sub surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have warmed to the levels generally observed prior to an El Niño event.”
This is similar to what Skymet had said on April 15, “The weakness in Monsoon could possibly be attributed to an evolving ENSO”.
IMD has put the chance of El Niño strengthening at 60%, while Skymet had put it at 30%. In Monsoon foreshadow 2014 we had said “El Niño is evolving as of now, but is expected to get arrested. There is only a 30% chance of this phenomenon getting stronger.”
Another area where IMD and Skymet have been very close in their observation is the India Ocean Dipole (IOD), one among various factors responsible for influencing Indian monsoon.
IMD has said “currently near India Ocean Dipole (IOD) are prevailing over equatorial India Ocean. Based on the recent forecasts from some coupled models it is expected that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue till the end of southwest monsoon season.” Skymet too in its foreshadow had said “There is no clear signal about the emergence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year during monsoon.”
This clearly goes on to show that our Monsoon foreshadow 2014 has drawn the correct picture so far.
As always, we will share monthly updates along with regular rainfall observations on our website in the coming months.
